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Covid-19

Uma endemia brasileira: a falta de cultura estatística

A pandemia de coronavírus expôs uma endemia brasileira: a precariedade na produção de estatísticas de forma rápida e confiável. Nas primeiras semanas da crise, o Ministério da Saúde vinha divulgado os números de vítimas da covid-19 registrados nas últimas 24 horas como se a cifra representasse o número de mortes ocorridas em um único dia.

Quando os números ainda eram baixos, a distorção fazia pouca diferença. À medida em que o abismo entre o número de mortes que eram registadas e as que efetivamente se deram em um intervalo de 24 horas, ficou evidente a distorção.

A má construção da estatística no início da crise se mostrou irremediável. Os dados brotam nos sistemas oficiais de forma atrasada e destorcida. O gráfico abaixo foi construído com os dados de mortes por data de notificação, ou seja, o dia em os óbitos foram registrados no sistema e não o dia em que efetivamente ocorreram. O resultado: uma “montanha-russa” que sugere altos e baixos que não fazem sentido algum.

Observe que, invariavelmente, os picos coincidem com as terças-feiras. O fenômeno não tem relação alguma com o comportamento dos pacientes, dinâmica epidemiológica ou uma preferência assassina do vírus.

A alta no número de mortes se deve ao fato absolutamente trivial: muitos dos laboratórios encarregados da tarefa de processar os testes não funcionam no fim de semana. A explosão de casos de toda terça-feira é o resultado do processamento de testes e dados que estavam represados dias antes.

A única anomalia nessa tendência foi registrada na terça 21 de abril. Um feriado no Brasil. Naquela semana, o pico foi adiado para o dia 23. O “problema” deverá se repetir na semana que vem, pelo fato de na segunda-feira ser feriado no Brasil.

A linha vermelha do gráfico é a média variável das semanas de epidemia, que ajusta as distorções do sobe e desce das mortes.

O gráfico abaixo nos oferece uma outra perspectiva das mortes no Brasil. Posicionas exatamente na data em que ocorreram, as mortes desenham um novo perfil da pandemia. Mostrando que até junho, ela foi muito mais letal que éramos induzidos a pensar. E que desde então ela refluiu e se estabilizou em um patamar bem abaixo dos picos funestos que as terças-feiras do caos tendem a nos fazer acreditar.

O gráfico acima precisa se lido com uma importante ponderação. A queda abrupta no número de óbitos iniciada em agosto não representa uma redução real de mortes. É resultado do atraso do Ministério da Saúde em tabular os dados nacionais e na confirmação dos caos pelos vários laboratórios envolvidos na análise das amostras.

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